Fitch Ratings has affirmed Rwanda’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at “B+”, highlighting the country’s strong economic growth, resilient economy, and continued access to external financing.
The rating agency said regional tensions earlier in the year, including concerns related to the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) in early March 2026, are not expected to have a meaningful impact on Rwanda’s ability to secure external funding.
Fitch noted that most concessional financing is provided directly to the government for development projects rather than to the military.
Strong and Consistent Growth
Fitch estimates Rwanda’s economy grew by about 8% in 2025, demonstrating resilience despite regional challenges.
The agency expects the country’s growth to remain robust, averaging above 7% through 2027, significantly higher than the 4.5% median growth rate for countries in the ‘B’ rating category.
The expansion is expected to be driven by strong construction activity, agriculture and tourism. A key driver is the development of Bugesera International Airport, one of Rwanda’s largest infrastructure projects, which is expected to be completed in early 2028 and is widely seen as a catalyst for future trade, tourism and investment.
Investment and Development Momentum
Fitch noted that Rwanda continues to attract strong foreign direct investment (FDI) and official financing to support its development agenda.
Imports associated with major infrastructure projects are expected to temporarily widen the current account deficit to around 15% of GDP in 2026, reflecting the scale of ongoing economic expansion.
These investments, combined with concessional external financing, are helping to fund large-scale development projects and sustain economic growth.
While net external debt is projected to rise to 65% of GDP in 2026, Fitch emphasized that much of Rwanda’s external borrowing is on highly concessional terms, which reduces repayment pressures and supports debt sustainability.
Foreign exchange reserves are expected to cover about 2.7 months of external payments in 2026, reinforcing the importance of Rwanda’s continued access to international financing and development partnerships.
Managing Inflation
Fitch estimates inflation averaged 7% in 2025 and expects it to rise slightly to 7.6% in 2026, remaining within the National Bank of Rwanda’s target range of 2% to 8%.
To manage price pressures, the central bank has taken proactive steps. Since August 2025, the policy rate has been increased twice by a combined 75 basis points to 7.25%, reflecting efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability while supporting growth.
Governance and Institutional Strength
Fitch also pointed to Rwanda’s institutional framework as a supporting factor in its credit profile.
The country received an ESG relevance score of “5” for political stability and rights, and “5+” for rule of law, institutional quality and control of corruption.
These scores are based on the World Bank Governance Indicators, which form part of Fitch’s sovereign rating methodology.
Rwanda ranks around the 55th percentile globally on these governance indicators, reflecting stable institutions, an established legal framework and steady improvements in governance.
Fitch said these institutional strengths, combined with strong economic growth and continued investment in infrastructure, position Rwanda well to sustain its development trajectory in the coming years.