OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to accelerate oil production increases for a second consecutive month, announcing a 411,000 barrels-per-day hike for June, despite falling prices and concerns about weakening global demand.
Following a virtual meeting that lasted just over an hour, the oil producer group said market fundamentals remain healthy and inventories are low, justifying the increase. The group includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia.
The decision follows a larger-than-expected production boost for May, which contributed to Brent crude prices falling below $60 per barrel in April a four-year low. Prices closed at $61.29 a barrel on Friday after shedding more than 1%, as traders anticipated further increases from the group.
The accelerated hikes come as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to press OPEC+ to raise production to ease prices. Trump is expected to visit Saudi Arabia later in May.
Sources within the group said Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, has pushed for a quicker rollback of previous cuts in part to penalize members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan for failing to meet production quotas. Kazakhstan, which exceeded its April quota despite a 3% production decline, has said it will prioritize national interests over OPEC+ targets.
“This is a managed unwind of cuts, not a fight for market share,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, noting that output remains nearly 5 million barrels per day below pre-cut levels.
Eight countries participating in the current round of cuts, totaling 2.2 million barrels per day, agreed in December to gradually unwind them. The June increase brings the combined hikes for April, May and June to 960,000 barrels per day, representing about 44% of the total reduction, according to Reuters calculations.
Kuwait’s oil minister said Saturday’s meeting would play a key role in shaping future production policy. A full ministerial meeting is scheduled for May 28.
Despite the phased increases, OPEC+ has signalled it will not introduce new supply cuts to support prices, according to sources familiar with Saudi Arabia’s position. Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets said compliance remains a primary focus, especially among underperforming members like Kazakhstan, Iraq and, to a lesser extent, Russia.